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Guide sur les matières premières
Nitesh Shah
Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree Europe
Nitesh Shah is a seasoned financial professional with over 24 years of experience in research and investment strategy. As Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe, he leads market analysis and insights across asset classes, with a focus on commodities and exchange-traded products. Previously, he held roles at Moody’s, HSBC Investment Bank, The Pension Protection Fund, and Decision Economics, building expertise in market analysis and strategy.
Nitesh earned a master’s degree in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University and a bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics. His insights are frequently featured in financial media, and he is a sought-after speaker at industry events. He also hosts the ‘Commodity Exchange’ podcast, where he discusses trends shaping global markets. Passionate about guiding investors, Nitesh provides actionable insights to help them navigate complex financial landscapes.
Trade War pushes gold to new highs
Gold reached a fresh all-time high on 11 April, extending a strong six-month rally. Gold is clearly seen at the favoured safe haven asset in a world upended by Trump’s Trade war. The US dollar has depreciated, and US Treasuries are selling off hard as faith in the US as a reliable trading partner has diminished.
The gold price surge has been fuelled by US dollar depreciation (Figure 1) reversing what had previously been headwinds for the metal in past years.
Figure 1: Gold and dollar
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. 01/01/2025-11/04/2025. Daily data. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
Real bonds yields have risen sharply in recent days (Figure 2), while gold has continued to defy these headwinds.
Figure 2: Gold and and real rates
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. 01/01/2025-11/04/2025. Daily data. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
Gold is likely to continue its upward trajectory as erratic US trade policies keep investors on edge, prompting a flight to the safety of gold. Trump has offered a 90-day pause in his so-called "Liberation Day," tariffs. When activated we will see near-unprecedented tariffs imposed on most US trading partners. While cyclical assets have rallied following the pause announcement, gold is still rallying. On his initial announcement on Liberation Day, gold came under selling pressure. This is typical during periods of financial stress: when equities and other risk assets fall, gold is often sold initially as investors seek liquidity. Margin calls and risk management protocols tend to drive such short-term selling. However, gold typically rebounds quickly, and we are seeing that rebound now.
Trump additionally slapped a 145% tariff on China with immediate effect, which is an indication that the trade war will escalate further. China has allowed its yuan to depreciate to the lowest levels since 2007. With the US dollar also depreciating, we could be entering a period of currency wars alongside the trade war. Gold stands out as a currency that can’t be debased.
Market-based indicators now suggest growing risks of both recession and inflation—a stagflation scenario that could significantly benefit gold.
To put recent gains in perspective: it took 14 years for gold to rise from $1,000/oz to $2,000/oz, but just over a year to surge from $2,000/oz to $3,000/oz. A further $800/oz increase to surpass $4,000/oz no longer seems far-fetched.
Liberation day at least provided clarification that bullion will be exempt from tariffs. Futures prices are now at a record discount to spot prices (Figure 3). We expect the migration of gold from London to New York that had taken place over the past few months to reverse course as a result.
Figure 3: Front month gold futures less spot price
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. January 1990 to April 2025. Daily data. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
In fact, we are already seeing some gold flow out of Comex in New York over the past week (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Comex gold inventory
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. 01/01/2025-10/04/2025. Daily data. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
The bitcoin to gold ratio continues to compress as gold remains the standout winner during this time of trade uncertainty and financial market volatility (Figure 5). Year-to-date, gold is up 19% vs bitcoin down 13%.
Figure 5: Bitcoin to gold ratio
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. September 2022 to April 2025. Daily data. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.